High Temperature Triggers Latent Variation among Individuals: Oviposition Rate and Probability for Outbreaks
Björkman, C., Kindvall, O., Höglund S., Lilja, A., Bärring, L, et al.
PLoS ONE 6(1): e16590. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0016590
It is anticipated that extreme population events will become more frequent as a consequence of climate change. This article presents data for a willow leaf beetle species, concluding that if climate becomes warmer and there is latent variation among individuals in their temperature response, the probability for outbreaks may indeed increase. However, the likelihood for microevolution to play a role may be low. This conclusion is based on the fact that it has been difficult to show that microevolution affect the probability for extinctions. The results highlight the urge for cautiousness when predicting the future concerning probabilities for extreme population events.
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