Future climate impact on spruce bark beetle life cycle in relation to uncertainties in regional climate model data ensembles
Authors:
Jönsson, A.M. and Bärring, L.
Published in:
Tellus 63A (1), 158-173
Date:
January 2011
Summary:
In this study, we quantify the effect of uncertainties in climate projections on an impact model (IPS) that describes the temperature-dependent swarming and development of Ips typographus. Three forcing climate data sets (ensembles) were used: (1) E-Obs gridded observations, (2) ERA-40 reanalysis data downscaled by eight regional climate models (RCMs) and (3) regional scenarios from one RCM forced by seven GCM simulations representing SRES-A1B, for the period of 1961-2097. Impact assessments based on an ensemble of climate data gives more robust decision support than a single climate model approach because it allows a probabilistic assessment of the geographical areas experiencing a transition in biological response.
Updated: 2011-01-12
Events
2012-05-23 – 2012-05-23
Mistra-SWECIA Science seminar: The effects of different energy sources and technological progress on climate change
Fossil energy and technological progress are two important factors that potentially influence climate change. Today, the main source of energy is fossil energy, and its use generates CO2-emissions with global warming as result. Technological progress can however improve the energy efficiency and potentially lead to the implementation of alternative clean energy sources that may partially or fully...