Evaluation and future projections of temperature, precipitation and wind extremes over Europe in an ensemble of regional climate simulations
Authors:
Nikulin, G., Kjellström, E., Hansson, U., Jones, C., Strandberg, G. and Ullerstig, A.
Published in:
Tellus 63A (1), 41-55
Date:
January 2011
Summary:
Temperature, precipitation and wind extremes over Europe are examined in an ensemble of RCA3 regional climate model simulations driven by six different global climate models under the SRES A1B emission scenario. The extremes are expressed in terms of the 20-yr return values of annual temperature and wind extremes and seasonal precipitation extremes. The ensemble shows reduction of recurrence time of warm extremes from 20 yr in 1961—1990 (CTL) to 1—2 yr over southern Europe and to 5 yr over Scandinavia in 2071—2100 (SCN). The recurrence time of intense precipitation reduces from 20 yr in CTL to 6—10 yr in SCN over northern and central Europe in summer and to 2—4 yr in Scandinavia in winter. The projected changes in wind extremes have a large spread among the simulations with a disperse tendency of strengthening north of 45◦N and weakening south of it which is sensitive to the number of simulations in the ensemble.
Updated: 2011-01-12
Events
2012-05-23 – 2012-05-23
Mistra-SWECIA Science seminar: The effects of different energy sources and technological progress on climate change
Fossil energy and technological progress are two important factors that potentially influence climate change. Today, the main source of energy is fossil energy, and its use generates CO2-emissions with global warming as result. Technological progress can however improve the energy efficiency and potentially lead to the implementation of alternative clean energy sources that may partially or fully...