Impact models used in Project 3
Hydrology model HBVThe HBV hydrological model (Lindström et al. 1997) is a conceptual semi-distributed rainfall runoff model originally developed in the 1970s for operational runoff forecasting. It has since then also been used extensively to perform impact studies for both climate change assessments and water quality. The model is usually operated on a daily timestep and includes routines for snow accumulation and melt, soil moisture accounting, ground water response and river routing. Input data include precipitation, 2 m temperature and potential evapotranspiration. In Mistra SWECIA it will be used to provide boundary conditions on water levels in Lake Mälaren to the urban hydrology model TSR. Further information is available at http://www.smhi.se/cmp/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=6056&l=en. Ecosystem modelling framework LPJ-GUESS For the assessment of climate change impacts on ecosystem services in Mistra SWECIA, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS; Smith et al. 2001) will be used as a baseline modelling tool. First developed within the EU project ETEMA in the mid-1990s, LPJ-GUESS describes the main components and processes controlling the structure and functioning of land ecosystems at the regional scale and within seasonal to centennial time frames. Further information and a publication list are available here. LPJ-GUESS is a regional cousin of the global model LPJ-DGVM.Land use model MOLUSC
Socio-economic and climate-driven changes in European land use will be assessed using the Model of Land Use SCenarios (MOLUSC; Rounsevell et al. 2006), first developed within the EU projects ATEAM and ACCELERATES. MOLUSC matches the areal allocation of different land use categories such as agricultural areas, forests, urban areas and nature reserves to global demands for commodities (food, forest products, bioenergy), accounting for driving forces such as ecosystem productivity, trade patterns, human populations and assumptions regarding, for example, environmental and energy policy. For the regional case studies in Mistra SWECIA, the simulated land use changes will be downscaled to a resolution of approximately 1 km² using the method of Dendoncker et al. (2006).
Urban hydrology model MOUSE
MOUSE is a widely-used tool for calculating flows of storm and wastewater in urban pipe networks, developed and distributed by DHI. The model has been set up for the main sewerage networks of the City of Stockholm by the Stockholm Water Company in cooperation with whom it will be used to perform a general assessment of the consequences of expected future rainfall changes for urban hydrology in Stockholm.
Urban hydrology model TSR
The Tokyo Storm Runoff (TSR) model, developed at Tokyo Metropolitan University, is based on a detailed, three-dimensional description of the urban environment, allowing complex flow paths to be traced with high accuracy. In Mistra SWECIA it will be adapted for application to a selected urban catchment in the City of Stockholm, where it will be used for a more detailed assessment of the consequences of rainfall events of differing duration, intensity and frequency on flooding patterns and damages.
Forest storm damage model WINDA
The WINDA model, developed within the Mistra research programme SUFOR at the Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre at Alnarp, SLU, is an integrated system of models that was built for the assessment of stand-wise annual probability of wind damage in forestry (Blennow and Sallnäs 2004). WINDA can be used to evaluate silvicultural treatments and forest planning strategies with respect to the probability of wind damage. The model was recently modified to run on regional climate change scenario data (Blennow and Olofsson 2008) and is sensitive to changes in both speed and direction of the wind as well as to changes in the state of the forest and its surroundings.
Jönsson et al. spruce bark beetle model
The spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus) is one of the most destructive pests of mature Norway spruce forest (Picea abies). Climate change has the potential to affect timing of swarming, rate of development and number of generations per year. To obtain insights into the spatial and temporal impact of a gradually changing climate, a process model describing the temperature dependent spruce bark beetle activity has been developed by Jönsson et al. (2007) within the EU-projects MICE and ENSEMBLES and an SNS project. The model will be used in combination with LPJ-GUESS [link to LPJ-GUESS on current page] for assessing the impact of climate change on bark beetle outbreak dynamics at landscape level.
