Component II: Global drivers

Working Area 3. Climate-economy modelling
Working Area 4. Global Climate Projections
Working Area 5. Land use narratives

Climate-economy modelling

The purpose of this research is to finalize the construction of a new generation of integrated climate-economy models. The foundations for this were undertaken in Phase I. The new models will be built on state-of-the-art modelling in both climate and economic sciences. By adapting existing and developing new economic models we aim at a significant improvement over existing integrated assessment models by allowing very high regional resolution and an explicit treatment of uncertainty and technical change. Our leverage comes from the use of 58 modern macroeconomic theory and recent advances in computational methods regarding how to solve economic models with a high degree of heterogeneity.

The new generation of models will be used to generate climate predictions and for the evaluation of policy as well as various adaptation channels. These predictions and evaluations will be made both on a global level and for specific regions. They will thus be used to give policymakers, domestically and on the international arena, as well as other stakeholders both a broad and, depending on the target, detailed understanding of the global and regional mechanisms that lie behind the changes in the climate.

Global Climate Projections

This Working Area involves in-kind contributions to Mistra-SWECIA. It involves state-of-the-art global climate model projections that are produced in the international CMIP5 collaboration. The Mistra-SWECIA partners SMHI (Rossby Centre), MISU and Lund University are all contributors to the development and use of the EC-Earth global climate model now being used for CMIP5 integrations. Mistra-SWECIA, in its Phase I, contributed to the underlying scientific effort and networking on the EC-Earth development that has now resulted in a new global climate model and contributions to international science efforts.

Land use narratives

The biogeophysical and socio-economic components of the Earth system are linked via land use and ecosystem services for land; climate effects on ecosystem services such as food, timber and biofuel production affect the opportunity costs of alternative land uses and may lead to shifts between land use classes such as agriculture, forestry and energy plantations, as well as abandonment of marginal lands leading to regeneration of „natural‟ ecosystems.

Environmental policy decisions may also influence land use by setting aside land or imposing restrictions on management. The spatial configuration of land use and of the production of ecosystem services per unit land, globally and at a large regional (e.g. European) scale, has a fundamental influence on the supply side of global markets for land-based commodities (food, timber, pulp, energy crops), directly affecting world prices and trade.

A coherent description of biogeophysical and socio-economic world futures and their linkages via land use and ecosystem services is fundamental to defining the global drivers of decisionmaking and economic activity within a land-based sector such as forestry in an individual region or country, such as Sweden. There are two requirements to this: (1) description of exogenous factors that cannot be projected using available models; (2) modelling of system components responding to these factors. A coherent treatment of (1) and (2) will provide “narratives” describing potential future trajectories of a suite of global drivers of relevance to the regional and sectorial focus of Mistra-SWECIA Phase II.