Component I: Regional climate change adaptation

Working Area 1. Research on climate change adaptation processes
Working Area 2. Research on regional climate modelling: high resolution climate projections, impact modelling and risk assessment

The research in this component focuses on adaptation processes at the land use -based sectors, taking account of a wide range of factors influencing the
decision making process in these sectors. Initially, the forest sector in Sweden will be used as a case study. Research on adaptation processes (Working Area 1) is integrated with model-based studies of impacts of climate change and global drivers on forest resources and environmental values studies (Working Area 2).

Three common methodologies/approaches will contribute to integration between the two Working Areas. Firstly, we will continue to make use of focus group methods. Powell and Single (1996:499) define a focus group as: “a group of individuals selected and assembled by researchers to discuss and comment on, from personal experience, the topic that is the subject of the research.” There are many variations of the basic method, but generally, a focus group is a method for collecting qualitative research data through carefully planned group discussions with the purpose of obtaining perceptions of participants in a permissive and nonthreatening environment (Morgan 1988).

In Phase II we will build on and fine-tune the focus group method used in Phase I, to make it fit for purpose across various regions and contexts of the forestry sector. The focus groups will be complemented with larger stakeholder workshops gathering all involved stakeholders for follow up discussions and to receive feedback from participants. Second, to provide a complementary perspective, and as a key innovation, we will develop an agent-based model of decision making processes of forest sector actors, spanning governance levels (stand to policy/local to national). The model will be developed as a tool to explore and visualise the interactions among actors under alternative pathways of change in multiple drivers such as forest production, damage risks, prices and trade in forest products.

Thirdly, cross affiliation of researchers performing model-based impact analysis (Lund University, University of Edinburgh, SLU) in this Component’s two Working Areas will promote the exchange of results and insights from both the social science and ecological/biogeophysical aspects of the research and their integration in the data analysis and modelling.